Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Peyton Manning: The Season that Could've Been

I'll present this one without much comment. Nik Bonaddio, a big-time numbers guru from numberFire.com, has predicted Manning's numbers over next season should he play all 16 games.

The verdict? 409 of 598 (68.3 percent) for 4,398 yards, with 32 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.


By comparison, Mike Vick has never completed more than 62.3 percent of his passes. He's never topped 3,400 yards in a season, or 21 passing touchdowns.

Even counting his rushing statistics, Vick has never topped 3,900 all-purpose yards, or 30 all-purpose touchdowns, and he turns the ball over way more than Manning.

And, ff those projected Manning numbers took into account his surrounding talent in Denver, we can safely assume that DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and LeSean McCoy would represent an upgrade from Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Willis McGahee.

I get that it's tough to assume 16 games from Manning. But the next complete season Vick puts in will be his first.

I also get that Manning, apparently, just didn't want to come to Philadelphia, and didn't want to play against Eli twice a year. Even though that's a stupid, stupid, stupid excuse to deny yourself the best possible shot at another Super Bowl, that's his prerogative.

But my, oh my, what could have been. Sigh. If he puts up those kind of numbers this year, I'm going to be so sad.


  1. How did you ever find that website? I'm not going to sign up, but if I did it looks like I could spend a full week there without even realizing it. But I think I need Vanni's opion before I fully trust the site.

  2. Somebody needs to do a study of how accurate all these supposed "experts" predictions actually are, because I have a funny suspicion that they are terribly, terribly, inaccurate.

  3. I mean, you could take like 70% of those stats and basically get Mike Vick's 2011 season, so even with a margin of error up to 30%, you wouldn't be losing much on the deal.

    Also, granted, I'm not a math guy, but neither are you. That guy from numberFire is, and he does it as a job, so I'm going to go ahead and generally defer to him on this one. And really, this is a no-brainer, if you take out the health question (which this guy has). Compare those stats to his last four seasons in Indianapolis, and they're basically the same. So this guy is just reminding us that yes, Peyton Manning is a far, far, FAR superior quarterback to Vick.