Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Eagles drinking game:


This is the worst season in Eagles history since the Ray Rhodes era.  But that doesn't mean we still can't enjoy this season.  I present to you my new rules for an Eagles Drinking Game.  This is far from a completed list as our incompetence seemingly knows no bounds; so I'm asking you-- my idiots-- to come up with more suggestions so we can make this horrid season at least tolerable.

Here are my rules:

Saturday, November 10, 2012

My Phillies Off-Season Plan

Following a season that saw the Phillies fall from the class of the National League back to the middle of the pack, the team's off-season decisions will go a long way to determining whether they will be a contender or a pretender next season.  As has been well detailed throughout the off-season, if the Phillies maintain their payroll at the luxury tax threshold, they should have about $25-30 million to work with with major needs to fill in the outfield, the bullpen, and at third base.  Without further ado, my plan for the offseason:

1. Sign Josh Hamilton.  Crazy?  I don't think so.  Hamilton is one of the top hitters in baseball and is hands down the best hitter on the free agent market.  He is coming off a 43 homer, 128 RBI season and is only a few years removed from a MVP season that saw him capture a batting title.  Though he is left-handed and there has been talk of the Phillies wanting to add a right handed power bat to make up for Hunter Pence's departure, Hamilton's production against lefties throughout his career has been more than adequate as he has hit .280 with an OPS of .808.  By comparison, Hunter Pence is a CAREER 285 hitter with an OPS of .814.     Even better, he can play center field, a clear area of need for the Phils.  Of course, Hamilton's personal baggage is well documented.  However, he has not missed any legitimate time do to drug use.  Additionally and just as importantly from a baseball standpoint, there has never been any indication that he is a bad teammate - his Rangers teammates even showed how much they care for him when the celebrated their playoff series victory a couple a years ago with soda, not champagne.  He was a central member of back to back pennant winning teams, demonstrating he was far from a distraction from his team.  There has been concern about his durability, but I would consider this to be overplayed.  Since 2008, his first full year with the Rangers, Hamilton has played in at least 120 games and gotten at least 487 at bats in 4 of his 5 seasons.  Last year, Hamilton played in 148 games and got 562 at bats.  It may be a stretch for Hamilton to reach the 624 at bats he got in 2008, but seems 500 at bats per season from him is more than likely.  Consider also that though Hamilton has abused his body with substances, he does not have the normal amount of baseball under his belt as someone his age.  Speaking of his age Hamilton is 31 years old.  While not a spry youngster, he is still clearly in his prime and should remain there for at least another season or two, if not longer.  Coming off a year in which he made nearly $14 million, Hamilton is in line for a raise, but considering the questions surrounding his drug use and his durability, he will struggle to get the money he deserves for his on the field performance.  Additionally, rumors are already flying that the Rangers are looking elsewhere.  I would guess that a 4-5 year deal with an average salary in the $18-20 million dollar range would get this deal done.  While the Phillies would probably get bitten on the back end of this deal, the reward is high enough to justify the risk for a team that has world series aspirations right now and no clear answer for center field on the team or in the minor league system (Tyson Gillies has baggage and injury issues of his own and is not ready to take over in the majors).  Signing Hamilton would easily make the Phillies a top notch offensive team on paper and would make the middle of their order frightening, even with the potential continued decline of Howard and Ultey.

2. Re-Sign Placido Polanco.  If there is an immediate negative of signing Josh Hamilton, it is that the Phillies will instantly have only about $10 million left to spend.  Currently, 3rd base is being filled by Kevin "speed" Frandsen and apparently Freddy "roids" Galvis.  Frandson was excellent at the plate last year hitting .338.  What is critical to remember however is that he has a whopping 195 at bats.  Additionally, his career average of .269 and whopping OBP of .322 suggest that his .338 average is not sustainable.  Further more, he has never amassed so much as 300 at bats in a season and is already 30.  Unless he is the late bloomer to top all late bloomers, he will be no more than a fill in next year at the plate.  His defense, will solid, as not great, and could over a full season prove detrimental.  Galvis, while flashing great leather, is a black hole at the plate as I don't need to remind anyone and has never actually played 3rd base.  Peanut Head on the other hand, if used in a platoon role, should come cheaply (1-2 million) and with ample rest, could very well sustain a .300 average at the plate.  He will provide defense better than any Galvis in theory might possess and will outhit both Galvis and Frandsen.  He would also allow for the 3 players to rotate and take bench spots that will help both the aging Rollins and Utley rest.  I'd love to take a shot in the dark and sign Kevin Youkilus, but doing so would empty the treasury before other moves could be made.

3. Bring back Ryan Madson.  One of my all time favorite Phillies, Madson should be fully rehabbed from Tommy John surgery and ready to open the season.  While he has said he wants a closing job, he may have a hard time finding a team that will hand him the reigns.  What better way to rebuild his value then coming back to the only place he has every thrown a major league pitch - Philadelphia.  I am not a big believer in spending money on the bullpen, considering the heavy volatility of relievers, but the Phillies clearly need a reliable veteran arm to set up Papelbon.  A 1 year deal for 4-5 million plus incentives should get this done.  And if Papelbon falters, Madson can step right in to the closers role.

4. Sign Wilson Valdez to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training.  Why the hell not?  Wilson is available and will be had cheap after last years performance.  Stash him at AAA and when Frandson or Galvis inevitably struggles, you have a fan favorite to come to the rescue.

5. Non-tender Nate Schierhotz.  With Nix and Mayberry taking bench roles, Schierholtz becomes useless.

6. Start Brown and Ruf in the corners.  With Hamilton plus hopefully a full year of Utley and Howard, it is time to start the youth movement.  See what these guys have to offer.  If things backfire, work mayberry and Nix in as platoon players.

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

All Streaks Must End

My favorite Eagles-related streak came to an end this weekend. Andy Reid lost a game after a bye week. It's the first time. Whether the extra rest was just enough for his generally better team to overcome their opponents each week was happenstance, or he truly was a superior coach that used that extra time to exploit teams flaws, the loss of this week's game to a clearly superior Falcons team signals far more than such a loss should. It is time for Andy Reid to go, and the end of this streak is the signal of that end of an era.

I have never called for Reid to leave before, being one of his defenders to the end, but with Eagles Owner Jeffrey Lurie's proclamation before the season that essentially boiled down to "Playoffs or bust", even a mediocre season that sees the Eagles limp into the playoffs with 8 or 9 wins (unlikely) should not save Reid's job. He has demonstrated significant skill in player scouting and development, and I would love to see him remain with the organization in these capacities, though I doubt his ego would allow for it; he can certainly land a coach gig, if not another coach/GM combined position like he enjoys here, elsewhere in the NFL.

Knowing that, I would still be okay with cutting ties and letting Reid walk; if not now, with the evidence on the wall, at least at season's end. One streak ending begets another's beginning.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Castillo mistake finally fixed; Could Reid be next?


Well, the great Juan Castillo experiment has finally come to a bitter end, after 22 regular-season games in which the defense slowly improved but could never quite put it all together.

Last year, the team couldn't stop the run. Then, they were helpless against the pass despite boasting three star-caliber cornerbacks. This year, the pass defense has tightened up but the Eagles have been helpless at putting pressure on the quarterback, recording nary a single sack in weeks four through six despite leading the league with 50 sacks last season.

The switch from Castillo to Todd Bowles comes at an interesting time, midway through a season in which the defense has hardly been the team's Achilles heel. What can we glean from Reid's decision? A couple of observations:

Monday, October 15, 2012

Phillies Make Right Call with Joyner

When the Phillies first announced their coaching changes, I couldn't have been more ecstatic that Greg Gross was fired.  At the same time, I couldn't have been more dismayed that Steve Henderson was hired.  As the Phillies bats have struggled over the last few years, it has been evident that someone from outside the organization needed to come in to do the coaching.  In the perfect world, that someone would have been Barry Bonds.  What better way to teach your hitters how to be patient than to bring in the best hitter of his generation?  Bonds was probably a pipe dream.  Joyner on the other hand was a successful major league hitter, sporting a career average of near .300, while hitting 200 homers and having more walks than strikeouts.  Gregg Gross, who clearly was no better than Milt Thompson, who clearly was no better than Hal McRae, etc... needed to take the fall.  Hopefully Joyner can teach the Phillies how to be selective and improve their woeful OBP.

Andy Reid and the Eagles' organizational demise

In press conferences, Andy Reid has long held that any failure on the part of his team is really a failure of his own doing--to prepare, to scheme, to motivate. Any post-game interview following a loss is sure to start with the words, "I take responsibility."

That response was often laughable, when individual players' deficiencies or mistakes had clearly been the culprit for this or that particular play that contributed heavily to a loss. But now, those words ring much truer. Andy Reid has finally uttered them so many times that they've become reality.

Andy Reid has become the problem.

The book on Andy Reid is out, and has been for a while. He can't balance the run with the pass. He can't control the use of his timeouts. He can't manage the clock to save his life, particularly at the end of a close game. But the issues have progressed beyond those that we've learned to deal with on a day-to-day basis. Andy Reid, who has been the Eagles' coach since 1999 and in charge of their football operations (read: general manager) since 2001, has presided over a slow organizational slide from elite team to mediocre team. Let's explore how we got there.

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Pipe dreams: NHL needs to seriously consider contraction


Kent Wilson at NHL Numbers posted a great article on what ails the NHL, and why player salary rollbacks aren't going to fix it. Ultimately, Wilson arrives at the hard truth for owners: the only real solutions are aggressive revenue-sharing via the ability to trade cap space, or, even more simply, contracting or relocating teams that have no real hope of breaking even.

Revenue sharing is great, and it's probably going to be incorporated into the next CBA on some level. But it's a cover-up for the league's real problem, which is that the gap between teams that generate the most and least revenue is extremely wide and irreversible. The hard salary cap implemented in the last CBA was supposed to do two things: create cost-certainty by limiting player salaries, and ensure competitive balance by guaranteeing that teams would be spending relatively similar amounts of money.

Instituting revenue sharing within the hard cap maintains cost certainty, but eliminates the competitive balance element, since it allows big-market teams to spend more and actively incentivizes small-market teams to spend less in the name of turning a profit. That's kind of Wilson's point: that the pursuits of profits and parity are often at odds with each other.

That's why the league's only real solutions to its problems are relocation and contraction.